Methodology

This is an economic diagnostic tool, not a budget app.

• It measures whether a community can afford a minimum standard of living
• It does not judge whether individual households manage money correctly

The distinction matters: a budget app says “here’s what you spend.” This tool says “here’s what it costs to live adequately, and here’s whether incomes cover it.”

The core metric is the dollar shortfall: Annual Income minus Annual Budget. A $0 shortfall means income covers basic needs. A negative number means income falls short. We also track income as a percentage of budget for trend analysis:

The v3 model uses eight household-type-specific budgets instead of a single one-size-fits-all budget. Each type has its own expenses matched to the appropriate income metric.

Key Differences by Type

• Cars: 1 car for single adults, 2 for two-adult households
• Food: Individual portions vs. family-sized
• Childcare: Only charged for households with children

Current Cost Inputs

• Home value: $143,826 (Zillow ZHVI, Jan 2026 Lansing ZIPs avg)
• Rent: 1BR ~$975, 2BR $1,127 (HUD FMR), 3BR ~$1,300 (ZORI MSA)
• BWL electric: $0.1406/kWh off-peak, $0.1596 on-peak (Oct 2025, +6.8%)
• Water: +9.16% increase

Every household with children is in crisis (D) as owners. Childcare is the budget killer.Single parents with 2 children face the worst affordability: D (43) owner, D (46) renter.

The old model showed F (38) for all single workers because it charged a single person’s income against a family’s expenses (2 cars, childcare, family food). This was normalizing deprivation in reverse, making things look worse for singles by mismatching budget to household type.

The v3 model matches income metric to household type:

• Individual median earnings ($34,049, ACS B20017) for 1-earner households
• Household median income ($50,747, ACS B19013) for 2-earner households

This replaces the old approach of using a single income against a single budget.

Normalizing Deprivation

We call metric mismatches “normalizing deprivation.”Whenever a metric makes conditions look better or worse by mismatching the unit of analysis, it hides the real picture. This works in both directions:

• Aggregation: Household income hides individual hardship
• Reverse normalization: Charging individual income against family expenses inflates the crisis for singles

Income Distribution (Single Adult Renter)

The $6K/yr shortfall shown for “median FT worker” at $34,049 represents only full-time year-round workers, a subset. The median of ALL workers (including part-time) is ~$23,750. Half of all workers face larger shortfalls than what we show:

Source: Census ACS B20001 (earnings distribution), B20017 (median earnings by sex/work experience), Lansing city. Among workers with earnings, 49% earn under $25,000/yr. 40% earn under $20,000/yr.

The Gender Earnings Gap

Full-time year-round male workers in Lansing earn $48,125. Female workers earn $45,033, a gap of $3,092 per year ($258/month).

The v3 model uses eight household-type budgets instead of a single one-size-fits-all budget. Each household type has expenses calibrated to its actual needs: number of cars, food portions, childcare (only for households with children), and healthcare plan type.

v3 Changes from v2

• Home value: $143,826 (Zillow ZHVI, Jan 2026 Lansing ZIPs avg), not the $185K MSA median used in v2
• Down payment: 6% (NAR first-time buyer median), not the 20% assumed in v2. PMI of $79/mo now applies.
• Student loans: Removed from baseline (only 43% of adults carry them)
• Healthcare: ACA marketplace rates for single earners, not employer-sponsored family rates
• Rent: 1BR ~$975 (ZORI-adjusted), 2BR $1,127 (HUD FMR 2025), 3BR ~$1,300 (ZORI MSA)

Lansing-Specific Sources

• Utilities: BWL rate schedules (electric + water)
• Childcare: MDHHS Region 5 market rates
• Auto insurance: Michigan DIFS (MI is the highest-cost state)
• Property tax: Ingham County Equalization millage rates

ALICE Floors

Budget category costs are never allowed to drop below the ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) survival threshold from the United Way of South Central Michigan. This prevents the model from normalizing deprivation. If CPI says food got cheaper but people are eating inadequately, the model doesn’t call that “affordable.”

ALICE threshold for Ingham County: 41% of households fall below it. Single adult: $28,740/yr. Family of four: $74,556/yr.

Owner vs. Renter

The model computes separate indices for homeowners and renters, then combines them with a population-weighted average (53% owner / 47% renter in Lansing city). The owner model represents new buyers only. Existing homeowners with locked-in low rates have lower actual costs.

All data is pulled at the most local level available:

No county-level data is used.County data masks Lansing’s reality:

• Lansing city individual median earnings: $34,049
• Lansing city household median income: $50,747
• Ingham County household median: $62,548 (inflated by suburbs)

Lansing has no city-level CPI. Instead of using the overly broad Midwest Region CPI, we built a Lansing-adjusted price proxy:

• Direct local prices where available: BWL electric/water rates, Zillow ZORI for rent, AAA/GasBuddy for gas
• Detroit MSA CPI sub-series for everything else: food, medical, transportation, housing, apparel, education
• BEA Regional Price Parity (RPPSERVERENT29620) to calibrate price levels. Lansing rents are 79.7% of national average.

The original tracker used an opaque “crash score” (0-135) that combined 15+ indicators with arbitrary thresholds and equal weighting. We replaced it with a named risk indicator panel showing each factor individually.

How Thresholds Work

• Stable (≤ 50th percentile): Normal range for the Lansing MSA
• Watch (50th-75th percentile): Elevated compared to local history
• Elevated (> 75th percentile): Historically high for this market

Thresholds are based on the MSA’s own historical distribution, not arbitrary national cutoffs.

Michigan-Specific Risks

• Property tax foreclosure pipeline (3-year cycle)
• Land contract prevalence
• State government employment concentration

Mortgage and credit card delinquency rates are national only. No Lansing-specific delinquency data is available on FRED. These are shown for context but do not reflect local conditions.

• Owner model represents new buyers only, not existing homeowners with locked-in rates
• Renter model reflects current market rent, not legacy leases
• Eight household types modeled (single adult, single parent x2, two adults x3, retiree, student). Multi-generational households, disabled/SSI recipients, and 3+ children not covered.
• Census ACS income data lags 1-2 years; individual earnings (B20017) has the same lag as household income (B19013)
• No wealth or asset data. Measures income-to-cost flow only.
• Student loans excluded from baseline. Affects 43% of adults who do carry this cost.
• ACA marketplace healthcare rates may understate costs for workers with employer plans that have higher family premiums
• ALICE and MIT Living Wage thresholds update periodically, not monthly
• Detroit CPI proxy is 90 miles away with a different economic structure
• Eviction Lab data covers 2000-2018 only

All data, methodology, and code are open. The build pipeline fetches from public APIs and writes static JSON files. No proprietary data, no paywalled sources, no black boxes.

Individual charts and metrics can be embedded in external sites via iframe using the /embed route. Embeds render without the navigation bar, with a dark background matching the main app theme and a small attribution link.

Query Parameters

iframe Example

<iframe
  src="https://your-domain.com/embed?type=gauge&household=single_adult&tenure=renter"
  width="400"
  height="320"
  frameBorder="0"
  style="border: none; border-radius: 8px;"
></iframe>